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My analysis of the US stock market for the month of February. Updated almost daily. So when you come back to this page press the refresh button for the latest update.
The US market had a nasty drop yesterday. I think the green support area of the previous high is doing its job quite well as a support area.
And it might provide a support again this time.
A double bottom in the 60 min chart might be forming and if SPX futures can trade above the 60 min downtrend line, then it might move back up and continue to make new highs.
Otherwise, if it drops below the double bottom, then more correction will come.
If we take a look at the daily chart of the SPX, we can see that the drop yesterday was just a blip and a big long uptrend. The previous high support is still there and SPX has not drop below it yet.
SPX is still above its rising daily 20 MA, 50 MA and 200 MA.
I think if SPX can stay above the support area and meet the 20 MA and find support there, then the US stock market will continue to rise and make new all time highs.
QQQ has broken above a 60 min ascending triangle. This is a bullish continuation pattern.
Take note of the rising 60 min 20 MA, 50 MA and 200 MA as well. QQQ is still above these 3 moving averages and this show bullishness.
Therefore, we should continue to have a bullish bias.
The top of the ascending triangle pattern will be a new support for QQQ. As long as QQQ stays above this area then QQQ is likely to move higher.
When the techs move higher and lead the market, the entire stock market will continue to rise.
ROKU is a stock that has had a lot of wild swings.
If we draw a line that connects the highs and the lows we could see a possible large triangle that may be forming.
A breakout above the triangle might send the stock higher and since this is a large triangle, this means that the long term prospects for ROKU will be good and it will move higher in the long term.
The lower trend line is also near the rising 200 MA. This gives us a better support as the rising 200 MA can be a powerful support.
As long as ROKU stays above the lower trend line and the rising daily 200 MA, then it could move up and perhaps break above the upper trend line in the future.
Hope you had a great long weekend. US market was in holiday yesterday.
Today as the market reopens, the future is weak after HSBC decides to cut jobs and also Apple warns of the impact of Coronavirus on its revenue.
Therefore, the futures are dropping.
The 60 min SPX shows us how the index has broken below a 60 min uptrend line. It also formed a bearish 60 min 20 MA cross 50 MA. This shows weaknesses and therefore one should be cautious of more weaknesses.
Right now the SPX is sitting at a support area. This is also where the rising 60 min 200 MA is. This will be crucial.
If SPX is able to stay above the support area and the 60 min 200 MA, then perhaps it will rebound and the move higher. On the other hand, if the SPX drops below this area, then there could be further weaknesses.
When it comes to trading, always choose a very good setup before entering.
Using the 60 min chart allows us to spot nice swing trading environment.
The last one was where the SPX broke above a 60 min downtrend line and where it formed a 60 min ascending triangle.
Right now I do not see any nice pattern yet.
But if SPX manages to stay above support then it will rebound back up and perhaps continue to make new highs.
Yesterday, the SPX manage to stop dropping at the previous highs support. It also did not drop that much below the 60 min utprend line that I drew yesterday.
Indeed it formed a doji type of candlestick and then it reverse back higher.
This reminds us that it is a good idea to watch for bullish reversal candlestick patterns like the doji or bottoming tail when the index is at a support area.
The rising 60 min 200 MA tells us that we need to have a bullish bias on the US stock market.
I have extended the uptrend line higher and I think this will be a good way for us to gauge the stock market short term. As long as S&P stays above this uptrend line then we can expect higher prices.
If it drops below this trend line then we should expect slowing momentum.
China just reported a massive spike in Coronavirus infection. They used another measure and the cases gone up by I think 15000 in one day. This spark more fear in the market about the implication of what it might have on the world economy.
Currently, the S&P 500 is challenging the previous highs support. It is also sitting at an uptrend line. This should provide some support and if support holds then S&P might reverse and go back higher.
But if S&P slashes through this support area and goes below the uptrend line, then there could be more weaknesses and the S&P might drop to the rising 60 min 200 MA.
If it drops to the 60 min 200 MA area, we shall try and see if there is any bullish reversal pattern in the 60 min chart.
The S&P 500 has run up quite a lot since it broke a 60 min downtrend line and the 60 min ascending triangle. So, it is not surprising that it is correcting again.
The 60 min chart of the SPX above shows that the index is still in a 60 min uptrend.
It is above its 60 min 20 MA, 50 MA and 200 MA. Therefore, we should continue to remain bullish on the S&P 500.
Notice the green area that I have highlighted.
That is the previous high support area. A previous high that is overcome will be a new support area. And as long as S&P 500 stays above this green area, then it is likely to continue to move higher.
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