Analisa dan cerita menarik yang mengenai saham saham di Bursa Malaysia serta saham panas dan saham yang anda perlu pay attention.
Was a bit late in uploading this.
Hopefully today's analysis and stocks I will upload it before the next trading day.
The KLCI has broken below a daily support level. Due to the sell off in the US stock market, this has also affected the local market.
As you can see from the chart above, the KLCI is still below its declining 200 day moving average. Normally, any stock or market that is below a "declining" 200 MA is considered not to be of investing quality.
It is difficult to invest in this kind of environment because the overall trend is down.
Not only is the KLCI below the 200 MA, it is also now below the daily 50 MA and 20 MA. This means that it is bearish in the long term, the mid term and the short term.
It is not advisable to trade Malaysian stocks for the short term when it is below the 20 MA. Sure there will be some stocks that defy gravity but you would need to be a bit choosy.
If you take a look at the 60 min chart of KLCI ( not shown) yourself you will be able to see that it is below the 60 min 20 MA and 50 MA. Trading below the 60 min 20 MA is not good at all for swing longs for Malaysian stocks.
Therefore you will need to be patient and wait for KLSE to trade back above the 60 min 20 MA to initiate swing longs to have the short term trend on your side.
Do note that the KLCI had also given a bearish cross signal in the daily chart.
I do not know how low it can go but given the bearish environment it is possible for it to challenge the previous low. So do be careful.
For those who read my analysis of the KLSE, my apologies because I did not write on it yesterday. But do follow the daily commentary on the US market as a fall in the US market may have a big impact on KLCI.
When the Dow drops, you can expect the KLSE to drop.
The reason for the steep fall in KLSE from a technical point of view is because the market dropped below a 60 min uptrend line. Uptrend lines are very important because they help to tell us whether the uptrend is good or not.
Sometimes a stock can fall drastically the moment it drops below a trend line. So it pays to pay attention to the occurrence. I think I did draw a trend line in my past analysis.
So the next time you see me draw a trend line do pay special attention as it tells you 2 things:
The KLCI is very weak I must say.
It is below the declining 200 day moving average and whenever a stock or index is below this important moving average, one should be treat a rally or bounce with suspect.
The bigger trend is down and therefore any rally is in danger of reversing due to the strong pressures of the bigger downtrend.
Right now the KLCI is at a support area. This support area will be very crucial because if the KLSE does not stay above this support area, it is likely to go lower to the next support area.
Today the KLCI went up a bit but quickly drop as it went near the 60 min 200 MA.
The 200 MA in any time frame can often hint of a resistance area. It can be price which is on the left or even just a psychological resistance but often times that is enough to keep the stock from rising.
We are only looking at the Malaysian market using the 60 min chart today but I'm sure if you look at the daily chart you will know that the market is still below the daily 200 MA.
Which is why it is very weak and one sure be more cautious about this market compared to other markets.
I have drawn a 60 min uptrend line in the chart of KLCI today.
As long as the market stays above this uptrend line I believe it will slowly chugg higher.
The KLSE managed to find support. The Stochastics has already given a buy signal in the daily chart. Do remember signals are just signals they may work or may not work.
But in our case it gives the bulls some positive value.
The MACD is also about to give a buy signal. So when that happens it might help the bullish case as well.
One must always remember that our Malaysian market is still in a long term downtrend. It is still below its 200 day moving average which is usually not a very good thing for a market.
So although the market is oversold according to the technical indicators, nevertheless I believe all the rebounds will not have a lasting rally until it goes back above the 200 MA.
The 200 MA is considered a long term gauge of the health of a stock or market.
There are some positive signs in the 60 min chart of KLSE which you can read and see above.
It has gone back above the 60 min 20 MA and 50 MA. There is a bullish cross. What you want to see next is a break above the trend line. Then hopefully a new uptrend in the 60 min chart of the KLSE will start and hopefully that will help us to rally up a bit.
But still we have a long way to go before catching up with other markets. But that's ok. In every stock market whether its in a downtrend...there is always a pocket of bullishness and some stocks that will go up.
Right now I believe it is oil stocks in Malaysia and I think that is where you might want to find trading candidates.
The KLSE seems like it wants to bottom out if we look at the 60 min chart. But I must say we are not out of the woods yet. Particularly if the US market goes crashing down more today.
I have drawn a box for us as a reference point.
What we want to see is for KLSE to break back above its 60 min 20 M and 50 MA with the faster moving average above its slower moving average. Meaning the 60 min 20 MA above the 50 MA.
We also want to see the KLSE break above the box.
On the other hand, if KLSE breaks below the box then we can expect more weakness in the Malaysian market and more selling ahead.
The Malaysian stock market is still in a 60 min downtrend. I do not see any end to the downtrend yet. Though it is at support, there is no bottoming chart pattern yet in the KLCI index.
The chart above shows how bearish it is. The KLCI index is still below its 60 min 20 MA and 50 MA. Therefore one should not be a buyer of Malaysian stocks at the moment until the market goes back above the 60 min 20 MA at least.
Follow the trend and let the trend be your friend. Some stocks may buck the general trend but for at least 75% of Malaysian stocks, when the short term trend is down, they will also go down.
Well, the Malaysian stock market is still in a selling mode. News of foreign funds selling millions and millions last week had also put a dampen into the spirits of investors and traders.
I think the bright spot were oil and gas stocks such as Dayang and Carimin.
As the saying goes there is always a bull market somewhere. Even if the stock market is lousy, there is still pockets of bullishness somewhere and that is where traders should learn to focus on.
Let us now look at the 60 min chart of KLCI. The KLCI is still very weak in the 60 min chart.
It is still bearish because:
If you compare it with the time when KLCI shot up nicely around mid February, you can see that:
That provided a nice rally for about a week.
Right now the KLCI is at support, which is the area I have colored in green. Tomorrow onwards, try to find a slowing down of bearish momentum or a bottoming chart pattern. If the support does not hold, then you can expect more selling ahead.
The above is the daily chart of the KLSE.
We can say that KLSE is very weak. Sure there are bounce here and there like in mid February but in reality it has not broken out of a long term daily downtrend line. Therefore, you should not expect a massive bullish rally until that happens.
Notice also how it is trading below its declining 200 MA. The declining 200 MA should tell you something. That the market is not that healthy.
We need the KLCI to trade back above the 200 MA and break above the daily downtrend line. Then it might start a massive bullish move.
Right now, the KLCI is finding support at its 50 MA. If it can hold then it will bounce back up but if the 50 MA cannot hold, then you can expect more selling.
Cerita hari ini KLCI lembap compared to world market, Kari Mee petroleum meletup, sama dengan Dayang dayang yang cantik, Hengyuan yang ketinggalan sikit dan kapal terbang Air Asia.
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